Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
SSA Retired-Worker Awards Claimed at 62, 2025
Social Security Administration Annual Statistical Supplement 2026, Table 6.B5 retired-worker awardees, all sexes combined, percentage distribution at age 62 for year of award action 2025, first print.
current forecast · 80% CI22.2%
21.1%22.2%23.3%
history:2020 all-sexes weighted age-62 share: 24.6%2021 all-sexes weighted age-62 share: 25.1%2022 all-sexes weighted age-62 share: 23.7%2023 all-sexes weighted age-62 share: 23.2%2024 all-sexes weighted age-62 share: 22.6%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-21T02:07:08Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 21, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- ssa.annual_statistical_supplement.table_6b5.retired_worker_awards.share_claimed_age_62.2025.first_print
Key drivers
- Recent same-table age-62 claiming share has drifted down from 2021 through 2024
- The full retirement age is now 67 for cohorts newly eligible at age 62, limiting additional FRA phase-in shock but preserving delayed-claiming incentives
- Women have a higher age-62 share than men, while the award-count sex mix is nearly balanced
- Administrative award-action timing and retroactive entitlement can move the annual share around trend
Resolution
- source
- Social Security Administration Annual Statistical Supplement, 2026, OASDI Benefits Awarded: Retired Workers, Table 6.B5
- expected
- February 28, 2027
- rule
- Resolve to the all-sexes weighted percentage of retired-worker awardees at age 62 in SSA Annual Statistical Supplement 2026 Table 6.B5 for year of award action 2025, computed from the first official men and women rows as sum(number thousands * age-62 percent) / sum(number thousands), rounded to one decimal percentage point to match the agency table. Use the first posted 2026 Supplement Table 6.B5 print and ignore later revisions unless SSA explicitly replaces the first print before the section release is complete.
- Data point
- ssa.annual_statistical_supplement.table_6b5.retired_worker_awards.share_claimed_age_62.2025.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.