Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
Social Security OASDI benefit outlays, FY2027
What will federal Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance benefit outlays be in fiscal year 2027, in nominal dollars?
current forecast · 80% CI$1,605B
$1,540B$1,605B$1,685B
history:FY2021: $1,135BFY2023: $1,354BFY2025e: $1,495BFY2026e: $1,550B
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- ssa.oasdi.benefit_outlays.fy2027
Key drivers
- COLA inflation index
- Beneficiary count
- Average indexed monthly earnings
- Disability incidence
Resolution
- source
- Social Security Administration and Monthly Treasury Statement
- expected
- November 30, 2027
- rule
- Resolves to OASDI benefit payments for FY2027, in billions of nominal dollars, using the first official SSA or Treasury fiscal-year table that reports Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance benefits.
- Data point
- ssa.oasdi.benefit_outlays.fy2027
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
illustrative traceThis trace was authored from source context when the cell was created; the tool calls shown were not executed. Runs from June 28, 2026 onward replay archived activity from the public records.
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▸ illustrative step: ssa.lookupauthored, not executed
▸ illustrative step: policyengine.simulateauthored, not executed
The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.