Georgia Medicaid ex parte renewal share, August 2026

Ex parte share measures how much of the renewal burden the state carries instead of the beneficiary. It trends with data-matching infrastructure, which improves in vendor-release steps rather than smoothly.

Latest 81.6 (02/26); mean monthly change over trailing window 0.67pp; damped six-month projection = 83.6.

Half-weight trend continuation with volatility-scaled uncertainty; renewal cohorts differ month to month, so the interval is wider than the point trend alone would suggest.

The resolver is a Georgia state row, not a national weighted average: the original first-publication August 2026 reporting-period row in the CMS eligibility processing dataset. The target is the share of completed Medicaid renewals processed ex parte, reported in percent and rounded to one decimal.

Base-rate/reference class: the most relevant outside view is Georgia's own recent first-print run for this CMS eligibility-processing series. The five observed points average 80.1 percent, the latest three average 81.6 percent, and the latest inspected value is 81.6 percent, so latest-value persistence with modest trend continuation is the prior.

Level, momentum, and mechanism: Georgia is already a high ex parte performer, so ceiling effects matter. The July-to-January improvement supports a mild upward update, but the February dip and high starting level argue against extrapolating the full 2025 trend through August.

Prior/update/interval: prior model is Georgia latest-value persistence with damped local trend, using five inspected observations from 2025-07, 2025-09, 2025-11, 2026-01, and 2026-02. Starting from latest inspected 81.6 percent, I add +1.4 pp for the 2025-to-early-2026 improvement signal and +0.6 pp for CMS compliance and continued automation drift, yielding 83.6. The 80% interval is calibrated from realized first-print movements and widened for the six-month horizon, renewal-cohort mix, and limited skipped-month sample, giving 78.2 to 88.9.

Counter-consideration: the forecast could be too high if the 2026-01 and 2026-02 values already represent Georgia's practical ceiling or if August has a manual-heavy renewal cohort. Upside outside the interval would require a durable system or data-match improvement pushing the first print above 88.9 percent; downside outside the interval would require a data-source outage, eligibility-system issue, reporting break, or cohort mix pushing the share below 78.2 percent.

Historical mean = (77.3 + 78.2 + 81.1 + 82.2 + 81.6) / 5 = 80.1 percent. Adjacent changes were +0.9, +2.9, +1.1, and -0.6 pp, with mean absolute change about 1.4 pp. Point calculation: 81.6 latest inspected value + 1.4 pp damped trend + 0.6 pp automation/compliance drift = 83.6 percent. Interval calculation: center 83.6, lower half-width 5.4 pp and upper half-width 5.3 pp, yielding 78.2 to 88.9 after one-decimal rounding.

Resolution-date note: the canonical ledger target uses 2026-12-15, tied to CMS's monthly data.Medicaid.gov release vehicle for a three-to-four-month-lag August 2026 first print. I did not find a separate future-dated CMS placeholder in this sandbox; I keep the target's date and bind scoring to the first official CMS dataset print.

Review disposition: accepted the optional resolver-clarity suggestion by naming the numerator and denominator concepts in the resolution rule. The 2026-02 point remains labeled latest inspected rather than first-print because the available draft evidence did not prove first-print vintage for that point.