Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
US manufacturing capacity utilization, July 2026
What will the Federal Reserve G.17 first-print capacity utilization rate for Manufacturing (NAICS), seasonally adjusted, be for July 2026?
current forecast · 80% CI75.6%
75.25%75.6%75.95%
history:Jun 2026 MCUMFN latest exact: 75.56%May 2026 MCUMFN exact: 75.62%Apr 2026 MCUMFN exact: 75.61%Mar 2026 MCUMFN exact: 75.11%1972-2025 average, Manufacturing NAICS table row: 78.1%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% interval
thesis.analyst · 2026-07-27T18:22:55Z
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- July 27, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- fed.g17.capacity_utilization.manufacturing.2026_07.first_print
Key drivers
- June manufacturing NAICS utilization was 75.5559 percent, essentially flat from May
- Official rounded G.17 row shows Manufacturing (NAICS) at 75.6 in April, May, and June
- Capacity utilization is still below the 1972-2025 manufacturing NAICS average of 78.1
- Recent manufacturing output was flat in June after a stronger April, limiting near-term momentum
- No annual revision is scheduled before the August first print; the announced annual revision is planned for autumn 2026
Resolution
- source
- Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, MCUMFN first-print vintage via ALFRED
- expected
- August 18, 2026
- rule
- Resolve to the first-print July 2026 value for Capacity Utilization: Manufacturing (NAICS), seasonally adjusted, percent of capacity, source series MCUMFN, as first available in the 2026-08-18 Federal Reserve G.17 release vintage through the ledger ALFRED/FRED adapter. Transform by factor 1 and report in percent. Do not use later revisions or same-day correction grace unless encoded in the official first-print vintage.
- Data point
- fed.g17.capacity_utilization.manufacturing.2026_07.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent runRecorded agent runThe reasoning below was generated by an agent using current official source context and saved in Thesis Log as this prediction's trace.
recorded trace replay
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▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
▸ recorded source check: official.lookuphidden
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.